The Reel Deal – By Dedra Cordle
Envelope error notwithstanding, there is always a level of predictability at the Academy Awards due to its placement as the last ceremony in the award circuit. By this time, there is a clear indication of who is most likely to win and this year appears to be another feast of predictability. The good thing about this, however, is that it makes for a greater chance to win the betting pool so here is a look at some of my predications as I go for another year at the top where I will earn a cool $3 for my skills.
Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
Prediction: As a much-loved presence in the academy, Allison Janney will pick up the Oscar for her role as Tonya Harding’s abusive and vitriolic mother in I, Tonya. Though I’m not upset with Janney winning, I feel either Blige or Metcalf deserve it more for their compelling and thoughtful roles in Mudbound and Lady Bird.
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Prediction: While Christopher Plummer’s presence in this category is the most intriguing given how he was cast at the last minute to replace Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World, this is one of the least compelling categories when it comes to the level of unpredictability. Rockwell, a long-time character actor, will pick up his first Oscar for his portrayal as the dim witted and racist cop Dixon in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. He should have won Best Actor for Moon years ago.
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post)
Prediction: Despite turning in one of the finest performances about a lonely woman who falls in love with a capture sea creature during the Cold War era in The Shape of Water, Sally Hawkins is going to lose out to Frances McDormand as the avenging mother Mildred Hayes in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. McDormand has been sweeping nearly every award ceremony but at least she’s giving great speeches to go along with her domination.
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
Prediction: Though John Lithgow does it better in the television show The Crown, Gary Oldman is going to pick up his first Oscar for his prosthetic heavy portrayal as the British leader Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour. I’m not a fan of this obvious bait-role and would much rather see up-and-coming stars Chalamet or Kaluuya be awarded for their superior performances in Call Me by Your Name and Get Out, respectively, but the academy does like its British biopics. This film better not win for best makeup though.
Call Me by Your Name
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Prediction: This is actually a slightly harder category to predict because the circuit has been split between Get Out, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. I don’t think the academy will vote in great numbers for Get Out based on its categorization as a drama/horror or its pointed look at race, but I also wouldn’t be completely shocked if it won from split vote between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards. With that said, however, I think Three Billboards is going to win Best Picture despite the controversy that surrounds it and the plethora of inconsistencies within the film itself. I am rooting for The Shape of Water though. I mean, how often is it that a movie based upon loneliness and finding love with a sea creature wins major awards?
The 90th annual Academy Awards will be held on March 4 on ABC. The ceremony is slated to begin at 8 p.m.